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2008-03-05 16:58:32|  分类: 学海无涯 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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2007-2008 China Fertilizer Market Review & Outlook


Research Background


China maintained a rapid economic growth in 2006 under the national macro-control policy, the first year of the 11th Five-Year Period (2006-2010) of the national economic development.  A series of policies for economic development, including objectives, key points of growth and directions of structural readjustment, have been worked out.

The 11th Five-Year Plan for the Chinese Economic and Social Development, promulgated in March 2006, requires that per unit GDP energy consumption and pollution discharge be reduced by 20% and 10% in five years against the backdrop of an expected annual 7.5% GDP growth.  This poses a new challenge to the fertilizer industry because it is one of the industries with high energy consumption and high pollution discharge.  The policy is expected to bring about a new round of technical innovation, distribution of production and product-mix readjustment in the fertilizer industry.  How will the new round of restructuring be carried out?

The 11th Five-Year Plan for National Agricultural & Rural Economic Development, promulgated in August 2006, sets up a goal of annual 0.65% increase in comprehensive grain productive capacity in five years under the condition of annual 0.18% decrease in planted grain acreage.  Then how will the fertilizer industry step up fertilizer supply, improve its product-mix, improve fertilizing technology and raise fertilizer utilization to ensure the accomplishment of grain production goals?

The 11th Five-Year Plan for the Fertilizer Industry, promulgated in October 2006, puts forward a fertilizer productive capacity of 63.5 million MT and a production of 60 million MT a year by 2010 in order to guarantee fertilizer supply.  The specific goals of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium production are 42 million MT, 15 million MT and 3 million MT respectively.  Domestic fertilizer self-sufficiency should reach 90%, that is, basic self-sufficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus supply and 30% of potassium supply.  How will the fertilizer industry readjust its distribution of production and product-mix and what steps will it take in technical innovation to attain the industry's development goals?

The conflict between the government's policy to practice macro-control and the policy of increasing farmers' income and the conflict between fertilizer price growth and government's control remained unsettled in 2006.  Farmers' and fertilizer producers' complaints led to a government decision to lift fertilizer price control, withdraw preference policies for fertilizer producers and give direct cash subsidy to farmers from 2007 on.  But fertilizer production cost keeps increasing on account of the reform of coal, power and natural gas price toward market economy.  Owing to this, there was a tendency of declining profit margin in the fertilizer industry in late 2006.  Therefore, how the government reforms its policies will have great impact on fertilizer production and fertilizer market trend in 2007.

On the basis of thorough review and analysis of government's fertilizer policies and market trend in 2006, taking into account of national economic move and overall policy reform, we will make an in-depth analysis of the problems facing the fertilizer market in 2007 and draw reasonable conclusions, so as to provide a reference to people concerned about China's fertilizer market.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1    Macro-Economy & Fertilizer Industry's Development

1.1    National Economic Planning And Fertilizer Industry's Planning
    1.1.1  National Economic Planning Goals and emphases in 11th Five-Year Period, 2006-2010
    1.1.2  Fertilizer Industry's Development Planning Goals and emphases for 11th Five-Year Period
    1.1.3  Agricultural Development Planning Goals and emphases in 11th Five-Year Period
1.2    Agricultural Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
    1.2.1  The influences of Agricultural Policy on Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
    1.2.2  Fertilizer Subsidy Policy And Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
1.3    Resource Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
    1.3.1  Coal Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
    1.3.2  Natural Gas Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
    1.3.3  Electricity Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
    1.3.4  Mineral Resource Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
1.4    Environmental Protection & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
1.5    Financial Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
1.6    Investment Policy & Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development
1.7    China Fertilizer Industry's Investment & Development, 2006-2010
    1.7.1  Investment in Nitrogen Industry
    1.7.2  Investment in Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry
    1.7.3  Investment in Potassium Industry
1.8    Fertilizer Industry's Competitiveness
    1.8.1  Nitrogen Industry's Competitiveness
    1.8.2  Phosphorus Industry's Competitiveness
    1.8.3  Potassium Industry's Competitiveness
1.9    Fertilizer Distribution System
    1.9.1  Fertilizer Distribution System Development
    1.9.2  Development of Chain Store Mode in Farm Material Distribution
    1.9.3  Sinochem's Marketing Network Construction
    1.9.4  China Farm Supply Group's Marketing Network Construction
    1.9.5  Postal System's Participation in Farm Material Supply
    1.9.6  Foreign Investment in Fertilizer Distribution

Chapter 2    Review & Outlook of China's Fertilizer Market, 2006-2007

2.1    Review of Fertilizer Market, 2006
    2.1.1  Impact of Government's Macro-Readjustment on Fertilizer Market
        2.1.1.1  Impact of Financial Policy Change on Investment in Fertilizer Industry
        2.1.1.2  Effect of Government's Regulating Policy on Fertilizer Market
    2.1.2  Influence of International Fertilizer Market on Chinese Market
    2.1.3  Analysis of Fertilizer Industry's Prosperity Index, 2006
    2.1.4  Fertilizer Market, 2006
    2.1.5  Fertilizer Input & Returns from Farm Production
    2.1.6  Fertilizer Production, 2006
    2.1.7  Fertilizer Imports & Exports, 2006
    2.1.8  Fertilizer Consumption, 2006
    2.1.9  Fertilizer Market Price, 2006
2.2    Outlook of Fertilizer Market, 2007
    2.2.1  Prediction of Fertilizer Market Trend, 2007
    2.2.2  Possible Fertilizer Policy, 2007
    2.2.3  Fertilizer Import Quota Distribution for Year 2007
    2.2.4  Authorized Fertilizer Importers, 2007
    2.2.5  Possible Change in Fertilizer Export Tax Rate
    2.2.6  Estimates of Fertilizer Production, 2007
    2.2.7  Estimates of Fertilizer Imports & Exports, 2007
    2.2.8  Estimates of Fertilizer Consumption, 2007

Chapter 3    Review & Outlook of Nitrogen Market, 2006-2007

3.1    Review of Nitrogen Market, 2006
    3.1.1  Analysis of Nitrogen Industry's Prosperity Index, 2006
    3.1.2  Production Cost & Yields in Nitrogen Industry, 2006
    3.1.3  Analysis of Nitrogen Market, 2006
    3.1.4  Nitrogen Production, 2006
    3.1.5  Nitrogen Imports & Exports, 2006
    3.1.6  Nitrogen Consumption, 2006
    3.1.7  Review of Urea Market, 2006
        3.1.7.1  Analysis of Urea Market, 2006
        3.1.7.2  Urea Production, 2006
        3.1.7.3  Urea consumption, 2006
        3.1.7.4  Urea Price Trend
    3.1.8  ABC Market, 2006
        3.1.8.1  ABC Production, 2006
        3.1.8.2  ABC Consumption, 2006
        3.1.8.3  ABC Price Trend, 2006
3.2    Outlook of Nitrogen Market, 2007
    3.2.1  Prediction of Nitrogen Market Trend, 2007
    3.2.2  Urea Market Trend, 2007
    3.2.3  Estimates of Nitrogen Production, 2007
    3.2.4  Estimates of Nitrogen Imports & Exports, 2007
    3.2.5  Estimates of Nitrogen Consumption, 2007

Chapter 4    Review & Outlook of Phosphorus Market, 2006-2007

4.1    Review of Phosphorus Market, 2006
    4.1.1  Analysis of Phosphorus Industry's Prosperity Index, 2006
    4.1.2  Cost & Yields in Phosphorus Industry, 2006
    4.1.3  Analysis of Phosphorus Market, 2006
    4.1.4  Phosphorus Production, 2006
    4.1.5  Phosphorus Imports & Exports, 2006
    4.1.6  Phosphorus Consumption, 2006
    4.1.7  Phosphorus Price, 2006
4.2    Outlook of Phosphorus Market, 2007
    4.2.1  Prediction of Phosphorus Market Trend, 2007
    4.2.2  Estimates of Phosphorus Production, 2007
    4.2.3  Estimates of Phosphorus Exports
    4.2.4  Estimates of Phosphorus Consumption

Chapter 5    Review & Outlook of Potassium Market, 2006-2007

5.1    Review of Potassium Market, 2006
    5.1.1  Analysis of Potassium Industry's Prosperity Index, 2006
    5.1.2  Cost & Yields in Potassium Industry
    5.1.3  Qinghai Salt Lake Potassium Group's Production
    5.1.4  Progress in Xinjiang Lop Nor Potassium Project
    5.1.5  Progress in Chinese Overseas Potassium Projects
    5.1.6  Potassium Market, 2006
    5.1.7  Potassium Production, 2006
    5.1.8  Potassium Imports & Exports, 2006
    5.1.9  Potassium Consumption, 2006
    5.1.10  Potassium Price, 2006
5.2    Outlook of Potassium Market, 2007
    5.2.1  Prediction of Potassium Market Trend, 2007
    5.2.2  Estimates of Potassium Production, 2007
    5.2.3  Estimates of Potassium Exports, 2007
    5.2.4  Potassium Consumption, 2007

Chapter 6    Review & Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market, 2006-2007

6.1    Review of compound fertilizer Market, 2006
    6.1.1  Analysis of Prosperity Index in compound fertilizer Industry, 2006
    6.1.2  Cost & Yields in Compound Fertilizer Industry, 2006
    6.1.3  Analysis of Compound Fertilizer, 2006
    6.1.4  Compound Fertilizer Production, 2006
    6.1.5  Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports, 2006
    6.1.6  Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2006
    6.1.7  NPK And DAP Price Trend, 2006
6.2    Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market, 2007
    6.2.1  Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Market Trend, 2007
    6.2.2  Estimates of Compound Fertilizer production, 2007
    6.2.3  Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports, 2007
        6.2.3.1  Estimates of DAP Imports & Exports, 2007
        6.2.3.2  Estimates of NPK Exports, 2007
    6.2.4  Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Consumption

Chapter 7    Review & Outlook of Fertilizer-Related Industries, 2006-2007

7.1    Review & Outlook of Synthetic Ammonium Market, 2006-2007
    7.1.1  Prospect of Synthetic Ammonium Imports
    7.1.2  Synthetic Ammonium Production, 2006
    7.1.3  Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports, 2006
    7.1.4  Synthetic Ammonium Price Trend, 2006
    7.1.5  Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Production, 2007
    7.1.6  Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports
7.2    Review & Outlook of Phosphorite Market, 2006-2007
    7.2.1  Prospect of Phosphorite Imports
    7.2.2  Phosphorite Production, 2006
    7.2.3  Phosphorite Imports & Exports
    7.2.4  Phosphorite Price Trend, 2006
    7.2.5  Estimates of Phosphorite Production, 2007
    7.2.6  Phosphorite Imports & Exports, 2007
7.3    Review & Outlook of Sulfuric Acid Market, 2006-2007
    7.3.1  Sulfuric Acid Production Plan in 11th Five-Year Period
    7.3.2  Sulfuric Acid Production, 2006
    7.3.3  Sulfur Production, 2006
    7.3.4  Sulfuric Iron Production, 2006
    7.3.5  Sulfur Imports, 2006
    7.3.6  Sulfuric Acid Imports
    7.3.7  Sulfuric Iron & Sulfur Price Trend, 2006
    7.3.8  Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Production, 2007
    7.3.9  Estimates of Sulfur Production, 2007
    7.3.10  Estimates of Sulfuric Iron Production, 2007
    7.3.11  Estimates of Sulfur Imports, 2007
    7.3.12  Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Imports, 2007
7.4    Review & Outlook of Phosphoric Acid Market, 2006-2007
    7.4.1  Phosphoric Acid Production, 2006
    7.4.2  Phosphoric Acid Imports, 2006
    7.4.3  Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Production, 2007
    7.4.4  Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Imports, 2007

Appendix I    Table

Chemical Fertilizer
Table 1  Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table 2  Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2002-2006
Table 3  Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2002-2006
Table 4  Chemical Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table 5  Chemical Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006

N-Fertilizer
Table 6  N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table 7  Balance Sheet of Urea in China, 2002-2007
Table 8  N-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006
Table 9  N-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table 10  N-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
Table 11  China's Urea Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table 12  China's Urea Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table 13  Urea Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 14  China's Urea Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 15  China's Urea Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006
Table 16  China's Urea Exports by Provinces, 2002-2006

P-Fertilizer
Table 17  P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table 18  P-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006
Table 19  P-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table 20  P-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006

K-Fertilizer
Table 21  K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table 22  K-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006
Table 23  K-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table 24  K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
Table 25  China's Potassium Chloride Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table 26  China's Potassium Chloride Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table 27  Potassium Chloride Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 28  China's Potassium Chloride Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 29  Potassium Chloride Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006
Table 30  China's Potassium Sulphate Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table 31  China's Potassium Sulphate Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table 32  Potassium Sulphate Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 33  China's Potassium Sulphate Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 34  Potassium Sulphate Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006

Compound Fertilizer
Table 35  Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China, 2002-2007
Table 36  Balance Sheet of DAP in China, 2002-2007
Table 37  Compound Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table 38  Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
Table 39  China's NPK Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table 40  China's NPK Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table 41  NPK Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 42  China's NPK Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 43  NPK Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006
Table 44  China's DAP Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table 45  China's DAP Exports by Country Destination, 2002-2006
Table 46  DAP Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 47  China's DAP Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 48  DAP Imports by Province, 2002-2006

Chemical Fertilizer Related Products
Table 49  China's Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006
Table 50  China's Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006
Table 51  China's Sulfur Import by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table 52  China's Sulfur Import by Customs, 2002-2006
Table 53  China's Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006
Table 54  China Unground Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table 55  China Phosphorite Exports by Customs, 2002-2006

Appendix II    Memorabilia of Chemical Fertilizer Market, 2006

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