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葡萄酒:可以“品味”的投资工具The Drinkable Portfolio  

2009-09-23 14:26:17|  分类: 阅读 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Is fine wine really a good investment?  精品葡萄酒真的是一个好投资吗

   

It might be. But before you pull the trigger -- or, I suppose, cork -- on this, make sure you read the label closely. A bottle of claret is not the Holy Grail. 是吧。不在你打算出手,或者打瓶塞之前,必要仔细阅读酒瓶上的标签。葡萄酒瓶可不是全能的圣杯。

   

The facts, to date, look pretty impressive. If you had invested $100,000 eight years ago in compiling a typical cellar of the finest wines in the world, your investment today would probably be worth about $230,000. That's a return of about 11% a year. 到目前止的数据是相当惊人的。如果你在八年前花10万美元搜了全世界最为经典的精品葡萄酒,到今天些酒的价高达23万美元了,年回11%

   

That's based on the Liv-Ex 100, an index of top wines (most of them Bordeaux) tracked by Liv-Ex, a firm based in London. 算的依据是敦国葡萄酒交易所(Liv-Ex列的Liv-Ex 100顶级葡萄酒(多数多葡萄酒)价格指数。

   

The same amount invested in Wall Street over that period, largely because of last year's market mayhem, would be worth about $109,000. An intermediate government bond portfolio would be worth about $150,000. 

Getty Images而如果同期把同多的投在华尔街,在的市只有109千美元,在很大程度上得因于去年的金融危机。如果投于中期政府券,市值则15万美元左右。

   

Furthermore if you had invested in wine over this period you would have made your money with far fewer sleepless nights than the investor in shares. During the bear market of 2000-03 the biggest decline in the Liv-Ex 100 was about 7%. During the recent financial crisis it fared worse, but its worst drop was still only about 20%. That was a lot better than most other investments. Nor is wine's recent performance a one-off. Several academic studies have found fine wines have produced good investment performance during other periods in recent decades. 而且,假使你在期投的是葡萄酒,那你要度的不眠之夜比起那些股票投者来要少得多了。20002003年熊市期Liv-Ex 100指数的最大跌幅在7%左右,最近经济危机中其表要糟糕得多,不最高的跌幅也就是20%上下,要好多数的其他投。葡萄酒的良好表仅仅是在最近,多研究都表明,在去几十年,精品葡萄酒都不失一个好的投资项目。

   

Since its launch in early 2003 the Vintage Wine Fund, a British fund that invests in wine, has reported a 22% return. The first five-year partnership set up by The Wine Fund doubled investors' money before dissolving, with happy timing, near the peak last August. 英国的顶级葡萄酒基金(Vintage Wine Fund立于2003年年初,致力于葡萄酒投,到如今已22%的投率了。葡萄酒基金(The Wine Fund立的首个期五年的合伙制基金在最好的机,即去年8月份高点期散伙,投者的金整整翻了一番。

   

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Bullish points for wine: Outstanding wine is scarce and it has value to drinkers. There's only so much capital chasing it. Pension funds and U.S. mutual funds aren't bidding up prices. Furthermore, it is something of an 'uncorrelated' asset, meaning it won't necessarily rise and fall in line with everything else. 葡萄酒的乐观数据:精品葡萄酒数量有限,受酒饕的珍。目前投葡萄酒的金就这么多,老基金和美国共同基金尚未介入,所以价格也上去。而且,它是一“无关联资产,也就是,它的价格不会随着其他各品的价格而波

   

But before you jump in, here are some caveats to bear in mind. 足葡萄酒投之前,切记这些警告。

   

The past isn't the future. Just because wine has outperformed over the past decade does not mean it 'outperforms' as a general rule, let alone that it will in the future. Recent outperformance either means it was undervalued before, or it is overvalued now. One factor that drove prices much higher this decade was a flood of buying from newly rich Asian investors. This is akin to the Japanese 'art boom' in the late 1980s. Who knows whether it will last?

While wine fared much better than many other assets during the financial crisis, it wasn't immune. And panicked and forced sellers still drove down prices and made it hard for anyone else to sell at a reasonable price.

Wine is liquid, but the market isn't. You can sell your stock portfolio in seconds. It may take months to sell a portfolio of wine.

The costs can kill your returns. Shipping and storage is expensive. And professional funds often charge hefty fees, including a big slice of the profits.

Look out for 'shrinkage' in your portfolio too. The two people I've known who tried investing in wine never made a penny out of it. They kept drinking it.

You really need to know what you are doing. That's true of any market, but probably more in wines, where expertise can be developed over decades, than in many others. The really smart money in the wine market is going to cream the dumb money.

Finally, investors in fine wine who take comfort to think they are buying something 'real' should think twice. Consumers may put a high price on what they enjoy. But then again, they may just say they enjoy what has a high price. A hilarious study of more than 6,000 blind tastings published by the American Association of Wine Economists last year found that people in general did not prefer more expensive wines. If anything, they tended to prefer the cheaper bottles. Prices for 2008 Bordeaux just jumped maybe 30% simply because uber-critic Robert Parker said he liked it. Ridiculous. 去不代表未来。十年来葡萄酒表现优异,并不代表它在也会表现优异,遑未来。最近的表现优明要去我低估了葡萄酒的价格,要就是在我高估了其价格。十年来葡萄酒价格升的一个原因是新富的洲投纷纷购入葡萄酒。这种情况跟2080年代日本的“艺术”相,有知道这种好景能持多久呢?

   

Brett Arends 经济危机期,葡萄酒的表要好其他很多资产,那也不是它就是不可摧的。当恐慌的家不得已以低价抛售葡萄酒,其他人也就很把酒到合适的价格了。

   

 葡萄酒是一的液体,葡萄酒市却没那灵活。你可以在几秒之内掉股票投资组合,出手葡萄酒投资组合却需要好几个月的时间

   

  其中的用会抵消你的回。酒的运和存巨大,葡萄酒投基金要收取巨用,包括很大一部分的收益提成。

   

  得警惕投水”的情况。我认识有两个人就是投葡萄酒却没有得到一分的收益。酒都被他自己喝光了。

   

  你必须对自己的投有着非常清醒的认识,任何市都是如此,不葡萄酒市尤甚,因去几十年个市经发展得非常专业。在葡萄酒投上,傻钱总会被卷走。

   

  那些认为买入葡萄酒就等于入“真价”的物品的投者要三思了。美国葡萄酒经济学家会(American Association of Wine Economists)去年布了一有趣的研究果,6000多名试验者品了葡萄酒,但他并不清楚些酒的贵贱示,多数人的葡萄酒并无偏好,很多人甚至更青那些便宜的酒。而在品酒大师罗伯特?帕克(Robert Parker自己喜2008年的波多酒之后,其价格便迅速升了30%左右。直不可思 

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